Risk Management

Leverage transforms prediction markets into active trading environments — but without proper safeguards, these markets can become unstable or insolvent. Prophex is designed with a layered risk management system that combines tried-and-true mechanisms from perpetual futures with unique features for binary outcomes.

Insurance Fund

  • Purpose: Acts as the ultimate safety net.

  • Funding: Seeded at protocol launch; grows continuously through a cut of trading fees and liquidation penalties.

  • Usage: Covers payout gaps when losing-side margin is insufficient to pay winning traders.

Example:

  • Suppose 80% of traders back Outcome A with leverage.

  • Event resolves to Outcome B.

  • The losing side’s liquidations don’t fully cover all B winners.

  • The shortfall is automatically paid out of the Insurance Fund.

This guarantees full payout to winners regardless of skew, preserving trust in the system.

Virtual OI Anchors

  • Every market begins with equal Virtual Open Interest (V) on each side (e.g., $5,000 vs $5,000).

  • Virtual OI stabilizes initial odds at 50/50.

  • It prevents small trades from swinging odds unrealistically.

Example:

  • Without Virtual OI: A $500 trade could push odds from 50% → 80%.

  • With $5,000 Virtual OI per side: The same $500 only shifts odds to ~55%.

This ensures smooth pricing and prevents manipulation by low-cap trades.

Position & Open Interest Caps

  • Max Position Size: Each wallet can only open positions up to a defined notional cap (e.g., $1,000 at launch). Prevents a single actor from dominating odds.

  • OI Caps: Each market has a maximum total exposure (sum of both sides). If reached, new positions are temporarily restricted.

These caps scale up gradually as the Insurance Fund grows, ensuring system solvency keeps pace with market size

Transparent Liquidation Rules

Liquidations are deterministic and fully transparent:

  • A position is liquidated when unrealised losses ≥ margin.

  • Traders know their liquidation price from the moment they enter.

  • No hidden margin calls, no off-chain discretion.

Example:

  • Alice posts $200 margin at 5× (notional $1,000).

  • Entry price = 0.60.

  • If price drops to 0.40:

    PnL = (0.40 - 0.60) × 1,000 = -$200

  • Her margin is fully consumed → liquidation.

This ensures losing positions are closed early, preventing systemic shortfalls.

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